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Manitoba small business optimism tumbles in September; all provinces see declines

According to the latest monthly Business Barometer®, optimism among small business owners in Manitoba declined 7.9 points in September to an index of 57.3, compared to 65.2 in August. However, Manitoba’s index still sits 2.6 points above its September 2016 index.

Short-term hiring plans are almost non-existent with 16 per cent of business owners looking to cut back and 13 per cent looking to hire. About 40 per cent of business owners say their businesses are in good shape, while only 7 per cent report that their firms are in poor shape.

Nationally, small business optimism dropped for the fourth month in a row to an index of 56.9 (out of 100) in September, the lowest mark in 18 months.

Business owners in Quebec remain the most optimistic, with a relatively healthy index of 70.9. Owners in the Maritimes are also more optimistic than the national average, but indexes now in the low 60s are a considerable step back from August levels. The mood is notably more subdued in the rest of the country, with Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador indexes at 50.9 and 52 respectively and Ontario not that much better at 55Manitobaand Alberta index levels are under the 58 mark, while BC’s dropped below 60 for the first time since 2012.

Results and the full report are available at: Business Barometer.

Highlights of the Manitoba Business Barometer for September:

  • 40% of small businesses in Manitoba say their overall state of business is good (40% nationally); 7% say it is bad (12% nationally).
  • 13% of Manitoba small businesses plan to increase full-time employment in the next 3-4 months (15% nationally), and 16% plan to decrease employment (15% nationally).
  • Insufficient domestic demand remains the main operating challenge (35%), followed by management skills/time constraints (30%), and shortage of skilled labour (27%).
  • Major cost pressures for small business include: tax/regulatory costs (67%), wage costs (51%), and insurance costs (38%).

Measured on a scale of 0 and 100, an index level above 50 means owners expecting their businesses’ performance to be stronger in the next year outnumber those expecting weaker performance. According to past results, index levels normally range between 65 and 70 when the economy is growing at its potential. September 2017 findings are based on 810 responses, collected from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflect responses received through September 18. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.4 per cent 19 times in 20.

September 30, 2017