Toronto, September 24, 2026 – Small businesses confidence dropped nearly 10 points in September, falling to 47.9, finds the latest Monthly Business Barometer® by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
The long-term optimism index fell below the 50-point threshold and has been trending down since July 2026. Firms trading internationally show lower levels of optimism than businesses active only on the Canadian markets.
“The renewed tariff uncertainty, along with rising gas and oil prices, are keeping small business confidence in check. That's a tough environment to plan in whether you're hiring, investing, or just trying to keep prices steady for customers,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics.
Price plans spiked in September, averaging 3.3%, up sharply from 2.6% in August.
“The Bank of Canada has held interest rates steady this year, but the persistent trade war and high oil prices could push inflation through the broader economy. The odds of a rate hike before Christmas are higher than they were,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB chief economist and vice-president of research.
Nearly all provinces and sectors posted a drop in the long-term optimism. The main cost pressures facing small firms this month were fuel costs, causing difficulties for 62% of small firms, followed by tax and regulatory costs (61%), and wage costs (60%).
Weak demand remained the leading growth constraint for nearly half (49%) of small businesses, while shortage of skilled labour persisted for 41% of small firms.
For media enquiries or interviews, please contact:
Dariya Baiguzhiyeva, CFIB
647-464-2814
public.affairs@cfib.ca
Methodology
September Business Barometer®: September findings are based on 581 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflect responses received from September 10 to 16. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.1 per cent, 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index below 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.
About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 103,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.