March 2026 Results
Key takeaways
- Small business long-term optimism saw a significant drop at the beginning of March, getting back below the 60-point level;
- Short-term optimism also plunged but remains about its historical average;
- Business health weakened sharply, returning to levels seen in Fall 2025;
- Insufficient demand surged as the top business constraint.
Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, fell to 55.8—a decrease of almost 10 points from February. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also declined, dropping about 7 points to 54.5, indicating a significant deterioration.
Provincial picture
Provincial trends—calculated as three‑month moving averages—display a similar pattern but with a delay. Nova Scotia and Quebec show negligible improvements, while most other provinces declined. Short-term confidence, also shown as three-month moving averages, remains below the long-term index. The two smallest provinces (PEI and NL) are calculated on 12-month moving averages, their indices respond more slowly and show even longer lags.
Sectoral overview
Long‑term confidence—calculated as three‑month moving averages—decreased across most sectors, consistent with the national trend. The increases were limited to three industries: wholesale; insurance, real estate and financial activities; and information, arts and recreation.
State of business health
The balance of opinion on the current state of business health dropped by 9 percentage points, returning to levels seen in Fall 2025.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase edged up to 2.7% in March, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase, while the average wage increase eased slightly to 2.2%.
Other indicators
Full-time staffing plans remain steady, with a larger share of employers planning to hire (17%) than to lay off staff (12%), marking a third consecutive month of positive net staffing intentions after a year of sluggishness.
Insufficient demand remains the top constraints to business and production expansion, cited by 57% of SMEs—almost 20 percentage points above its historical average and worsening compared to the recent months.
Cost‑related pressures continue to weigh heavily on growth prospects, led by insurance costs (65%), tax and regulatory expenses costs (61%), and wage costs (59%). Fuel costs saw the largest monthly jump, rising 14 points to 50%. Product input and raw material costs followed, increasing 12 points to 44%. Capital and technology expenses remain high, with 39% of SMEs reporting them as a major constraint.
Methodology
These results are based on 651 responses received from March 3 to 10 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.8 per cent 19 times in 20.
Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Accordingly, February’s results were recalculated to include 23 additional responses beyond the 601 originally used.
Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.
Since February 2026, the survey includes two new data points on shipping and receiving costs; and on shortages of equipment and technology. Provincial and sectoral details are not available yet.
More details
Regional data about business optimism, price plans, limitations and cost constraints:
The Business Barometer, 2025 Retrospective.
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