February 2026 Results
Key takeaways
- Small business long-term optimism rose sharply to 64.8 at the beginning of February, surpassing its historical average;
- Short-term optimism (61.2) also jumped and is now well above its historical average;
- Staffing intentions improved, with hiring plans continuing to outpace layoff expectations for a second consecutive month.
Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, reached 64.8—an increase of 5.4 points from January. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, rose by 8.7 points to 61.2, indicating a strong improvement.
Provincial picture
The long-term confidence increased in all provinces except in Saskatchewan. All provinces recorded index levels at or above 50, with more than half sitting above the 60-point threshold. Short-term confidence improved in almost all provinces but remains slightly lower than the long term, ranging from the low-50s to low-60s.
Sectoral overview
Long‑term confidence increased across most sectors, but the expectations ranged from 50 to 70s showing pockets of strength in economic activity. The declines were limited to three industries: professional services; insurance, real estate and financial activities; and information, arts and recreation.
State of business health
The current state of business health remained steady for a third consecutive month and at its historical average.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase dropped to 2.2% in February, while the average wage increased slightly to 2.3%.
Other indicators
Full-time staffing plans remain steady, with a larger share of employers planning to hire (19%) than to lay off staff (13%), marking a second consecutive month of positive net staffing intentions after a year of sluggishness.
Insufficient demand remains the leading obstacle to business and production expansion, cited by 49% of SMEs—around 10 percentage points above its historical average but showing minor improvement compared to the recent months.
Cost‑related pressures continue to weigh heavily on growth prospects, led by wage costs (58%), insurance costs (58%), and tax and regulatory expenses (58%). Concern over capital and technology costs declined but remain 9 points above average.
In business owners' words:
“Equipment costs are too high to justify upgrading due to operating costs increasing constantly. This would mean higher payments lower profit and reserves. Forcing my business to keep old equipment and sadly not update. I can't put my rates up due to customers struggling and they are looking for the cheapest. Their margins are too tight as well, causing shortage of profitable jobs for my business to take on.” Transportation business owner, Ontario.
“Our business remains stable, in this very strange economic environment.” Professional services business owner, Manitoba.
“The unsteady relationship with the US give our industry an uneasiness in purchasing, upgrading or general investing.” Wholesale business owner, Ontario.
Methodology
These results are based on 601 responses received from February 3 to 17 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.0 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.
More details:
Regional data about business optimism, price plans, limitations and cost constraints:
the Business Barometer, 2025 Retrospective.
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