Monthly Business Barometer®

September 2024 Results

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance,  shaved about two points and sits at 55.0—a good reading for the past 12 months but modest when compared to the historical average. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, dropped also about two points to 50.3.    

Provincial picture

Most of Canada’s drop in optimism is due to declines in long-term confidence in Manitoba, British Columbia and Ontario. The provincial indexes are widespread this month from PEI’s top reading of 62.2 to NL’s low of 52.6. Similar to the August readings, the top provinces report levels that are closely around their historical averages: Prince Edward Island (62.2), New Brunswick (62.2) and Manitoba (58.3).     

Sectoral picture

The sectoral indices for long-term confidence range from 65.9 in the health and education sector to 45.9 in agriculture. However, other than the information, arts and recreation sector and the hospitality sector, which registered some sharper seasonal drops -8.3 points and -3.7 points respectively, and wholesale (-4.9 points), the other industries have recorded minimal changes.   
 

Inflation indicators

The average price increase indicator decreased to 2.3, similar to the level recorded in March 2021. The average wage increase planned for the next 12 months also dropped to 2.3.      
    

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans have turned net negative for the first time since November 2023, with 12% of SMEs looking to hire and 16% of entrepreneurs looking to reduce their personnel. Consequently, as SMEs are less interested in hiring, labour shortages are less of a limitation on business growth. Current main limitation is still insufficient demand as reported by 53% of firms.   
 
  
 

Methodology

These results are based on 630 responses received from September 3 to 16 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.9 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance. Provincial results are based on 3-months moving averages, except for PEI and NL which are based on 12-months moving averages. Sectoral results, except retail, are based on 3-months moving averages. Therefore the provincial and sectoral charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate Canada data. 

The next Business Barometer will be released on October 31, 2024.

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, Retrospective. 

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist