Monthly Business Barometer®

September 2025 Results

Key takeaways

• Small business optimism crept up in September, reaching the 50 breakeven point;
• Average price increase planned for the next 12 months remains unchanged since July at 2.7;
• The share of firms struggling with capital equipment and technology costs reached a record high of 36%.

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, crept up to 50.2—about two points higher than in August. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, fell by about two points to 44.9. 

Provincial picture

Long-term confidence is weak in most provinces. Seven provinces register readings at or above 50, with New Brunswick leading the way at 58.8, followed by PEI at 55.8. Ontario, Nova Scotia and British Columbia have readings below 50 and far from their own historical averages.

Sectoral overview

Some sectors saw improvements in long term confidence, such as transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, retail and information, arts and recreation. While the remainder saw small deteriorations. Overall, most sectors are timidly confident over the next 12 months.

Inflation indicators

Price and wage indicators remain unchanged from the previous two months. The average price increase remained at 2.7%, and the average wage increase sat 2.2%. For more information on price and wage plans, the distribution of the average increase and comparison with past periods, click here. 

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans show a very weak labour market. September displays net negative staffing plans, closer to the levels registered in March. Currently, 18% of employers are planning on laying off, while 12% are considering hiring full time.

Weak demand persists for over half (55%) of businesses. About 20% of businesses reported distribution constraints, almost twice as high as the historical average. 

Tax and regulatory costs remain top concern for 67% of small firms, followed by insurance costs (66%). More businesses reported difficulties with wage costs (66% in September versus 59% in August). The share of businesses struggling with capital equipment and technology costs has reached a record high of 36% in September.

Methodology

These results are based on 752 responses received from September 3 to 10 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.6 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.  

The next Business Barometer will be released on October 16, 2025.  

Here are the planned release dates for the remainder of 2025: November 20, December 18. 

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, 2024 Retrospective. 

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist

Laure-Anna Bomal, Economist