Monthly Business Barometer®

June 2025 Results

Key takeaways

• Small business optimism saw a further recovery in June, though it remains slightly below the breakeven point of 50;
• Insufficient demand continues to affect half of businesses;
• Average price increase planned for the next 12 months remains virtually unchanged.

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, edged up reaching 47.3—about seven points above May level. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, moved up by five points to 47.7. Although confidence is showing a gradual upward trend for the third consecutive month, it still falls short of the breakeven threshold of 50 on both long- and short-term horizons.

Optimism among all SMEs remains quite low, albeit firms trading internationally register lower levels than firms doing business only in Canada.

Provincial picture

Long-term confidence in all provinces now ranges from the mid-30s to the high 50s, indicating weak potential for economic growth despite monthly gains. Prince Edward Island and British Columbia are the only provinces to exceed the 50-point threshold – the level where equal shares of entrepreneurs expect stronger and weaker performances.

Sectoral overview

Long-term confidence has also improved across most sectors, but the range is wider—spanning from the low 30s to the mid-50s. Professional services, and personal services are the only sectors above 50, while information, arts and recreation, wholesale, and agriculture continue to lag below the 40-point mark.

Inflation indicators

These indicators remain unchanged from May, with the average price increase holding at 2.9%, and the average wage increase steady at 2.2%.  

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans remain muted with no real appetite for hiring. Similarly, soft trends are observed for part-time employment, reflecting timid hiring intentions.

Insufficient demand persists as the primary barrier to business and production expansion (as reported by 51% of SMEs). Key cost constraints hindering business growth include tax and regulatory expenses (65%), wage costs (63%) and insurance costs (63%).

Methodology

These results are based on 412 responses received from June 3 to 9 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.8 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index below 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.  

The next Business Barometer will be released on July 17, 2025.  

Here are the planned release dates for the remainder of 2025: July 17, August 21, September 18, October 16, November 20, December 18. 

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, 2024 Retrospective. 

We released a special edition on tourism businesses.

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist

Laure-Anna Bomal, Economist