Monthly Business Barometer®

August 2024 Results

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, inched forward at 56.8—the highest level in the past two years but still about 5 points below the historical average. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, increased by 4 points to 51.8—getting closer to the historical average of 54.0.    

Provincial picture

The top four provinces reported levels that are just at or above their historical averages: Prince Edward Island (67.9), Newfoundland and Labrador (61.9), New Brunswick (60.5) and Manitoba (60.4). Ontario and Alberta are just shy of their historical averages at 59.3 and 55.4 respectively.     

Sectoral picture

Similarly to the provincial picture, the top five sectors are close to their historical averages: information, arts and recreation (72.1), health and education (64.1), transportation (60.3), and hospitality (58.1). On the contrary, manufacturing (55.1), retail (52.3) and agriculture (47.2) are the sectors reporting the least optimistic outlooks compared to their historical averages.     
 

Inflation indicators

The average price increase indicator decreased to 2.4, the lowest since March 2021. The average wage increase planned for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 2.5.     
    

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans are very timid, with 11% of SMEs looking to hire and 10% of entrepreneurs looking to reduce their personnel. Fewer firms (47%) reported domestic/foreign demand as the main limitation on sales or production growth in August versus July (53%).  
  
 

Methodology

These results are based on 438 responses received from August 1st to 14 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.7 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance. Provincial and sectoral results, except Ontario and retail, are based on 3-months moving averages. Therefore the provincial and sectoral charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate Canada data. 

The next Business Barometer will be released on September 26, 2024.

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, Retrospective. 

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist