Toronto, July 17, 2025 – Small business confidence is trending in the right direction but at a snail’s pace, finds the July monthly Business Barometer® by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
Long-term small business confidence index has reached 50.9 points in July, just slightly above the breakeven point of 50. This indicator has not hit its historical average since June 2022.
“The economy is stabilizing in some ways, and the direction we’re heading in is more encouraging. We’re not in the worst spot compared to previous months, but there’s still not a lot of optimism out there,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB’s chief economist and vice-president of research. “Although there’s a lot of uncertainty caused by the U.S. administration, many announcements have not materialized in effective tariffs yet and it seems many business owners have started adjusting to the new trade reality, which might explain why they’ve regained some optimism.”
Inflation pressures are easing, with small businesses looking to increase prices and wages by an average of 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively. Over two-thirds (68%) of small firms cite struggling with tax and regulatory costs, while weak demand remains the top barriers to growth for over half (54%) of businesses.
While hiring intentions during the summer season are historically strong, more businesses were looking to lay off staff (16% in July vs. 13% in June). Only 12% of firms were planning to hire compared to 15% in June.
“Business owners tell us they’re dealing with trade and economic uncertainty, increased costs, and difficulty keeping up with taxes and regulations. Having long-term clarity would mean a great deal to small businesses right now,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics.
CFIB’s Main Street Quarterly economic forecasts will be released on July 24.
For media enquiries or interviews, please contact:
Dariya Baiguzhiyeva, CFIB
647-464-2814
Public.affairs@cfib.ca
Methodology
July Business Barometer®: July findings are based on 719 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflects responses received from July 3 to 8. Findings are statistically accurate to +/-3.7 per cent, 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.
About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.
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