Canadian economy to see sluggish growth in Q3 and Q4
Economic forecasts based on the most recent (September 2024) Business Barometer® data indicate that GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in Q3 after posting a solid gain of 2.1% in the second quarter, as anticipated. Growth is expected to remain muted in the fourth quarter, at 1.4%, as the economy continues to face some headwinds.
Retail sales disappointed in the second quarter but rebounded over the third. Sales growth should however be very weak in Q4 as more firms report experiencing insufficient demand. This leaves the level of sales unchanged from one year ago.
CPI inflation fell faster than anticipated in Q3, reaching 2.1% year-over-year, and is expected to remain on the Bank of Canada's target (2.0%) in Q4. Such an improvement would support swift decreases in interest rates over the next months.
Private investment was stronger than expected in the second quarter, boosted by machinery and equipment. The estimate for Q3 points to a small contraction, followed by a flat forecast for Q4.
Payroll employment growth was also stronger than anticipated in Q2, posting a 1.5% gain. This momentum should moderate over the second half of the year but remain at healthy levels (1.2% in Q3, and 1.3% in Q4).
Those are the recent results from The Main Street Quarterly, CFIB’s economic publication. CFIB and consulting firm AppEco have partnered to develop early short-term economic forecasts of some key macroeconomic indicators, leveraging the timeliness of CFIB’s Your Business Outlook survey, the same survey used to create CFIB’s Monthly Business Barometer®.
The Main Street Quarterly also contains CFIB’s latest estimates of private sector job vacancies and a NEW interactive page. The ‘In Focus’ section, which covers a specific topic each quarter, focuses currently on the growing versus declining firms.
This edition shows a deeper look at the education and health care services sectors- their footprint on the economy, and their fitness.
Next release will be mid January 2025.
Related Documents
Full Report
Forecasts
Job Vacancies
In Focus
- NEW Growing versus declining firms Q3 2024
- Soaring costs of doing business Q2 2024
- Insufficient demand Q1 2024
- Small business price setting plans Q4 2023
- Commercial rents see steep hikes Q3 2023
- Businesses at risk of closing Q2 2023
- Small businesses' wage increase plans Q1 2023
- Investment plans in small firms Q4 2022
- The financial state of small businesses Q3 2022
Sectoral Profile
- NEW Education and health care services Q3 2024
- Personal and Miscellaneous Services Q2 2024
- Construction Q2 2024
- Transportation Q1 2024
- Manufacturing Q4 2023
- Retail Q3 2023
- Hospitality Q1 2023
Methodology
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