Toronto, November 20, 2025 – Small business long-term confidence is recovering in the lead-up to the holiday season, reaching 55.5 index points in November, finds the latest Business Barometer® by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
Most provinces posted a gain in long-term optimism. Across sectors, confidence for the next 12 months among retailers jumped 14.2 points, reaching 57.0. The current reading is the best seen throughout the year but still shy of the historical average (57.8).
“While it’s encouraging to see businesses feeling less pessimistic this month, it doesn’t paint the whole picture. The 12-month index across Canada is still below its historical average and is only roughly back to levels we’ve seen at the beginning of this year and in the past three years overall, when we were stuck at a low plateau of optimism,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB’s chief economist and vice-president of research. “Confidence levels have been seesawing this year, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty and mixed feelings small businesses have about the state of the economy.”
Hiring plans stayed modest in November, and the state of business health indicator extended its streak of weakness. A record share (72%) of small firms also reported struggling with tax and red tape, signalling frustration with Canada’s tax and regulatory environment.
“Unfortunately, the federal budget failed to deliver a fundamentally improved business environment for small and medium sized firms. Our recent research on SMB tax gaps has clearly demonstrated entrepreneurs in Canada are at a very significant tax disadvantage compared to their U.S. counterparts. Innovators, local risk-takers and wealth creators aren’t being heard when it comes to setting the right economic priorities, and this is probably what is also being captured in our data this month,” Gaudreault said.
Insufficient demand remains the top barrier to growth for over half (56%) of businesses heading into the busy shopping season. CFIB’s recent edition of the Main Street Quarterly reiterates how various buy local/ buy Canadian campaigns can boost sales and support trade resilience.
On the positive side, price plans dropped to 2.5% after sitting at 2.7% for the past four months, while average wage plans held steady at 2.2%.
“Despite high operating costs, many businesses are doing their best to keep wages competitive and encourage consumer spending,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics. “Small Business Saturday on November 29 is a great opportunity for Canadians to help our entrepreneurs help the economic recovery and to support local businesses during this critical time.”
For media enquiries or interviews, please contact:
Dariya Baiguzhiyeva, CFIB
647-464-2814
Public.affairs@cfib.ca
Methodology
November Business Barometer®: November findings are based on 666 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflects responses received from November 4 to 11. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.8 per cent, 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.
About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.