The special Survey on the U.S.-Canada Trade War was launched to assess the impact of 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian small businesses, as well as the potential effects of Canada's retaliatory tariffs. The findings, gathered directly from CFIB members, provide authentic, data-driven insights that help inform public policy and strengthen CFIB’s advocacy on behalf of the small business community.
Key survey findings:
Trade war impacts are widespread and significant
• 26% of all business owners report major negative impacts from the new U.S. 50% tariffs, and 28% report similar impacts from the new Canadian counter-tariffs.
• 46% of Canadian exporters selling to the U.S. are affected by U.S. Section 338 tariffs, while 49% of Canadian importers sourcing from the U.S. are affected by Canadian retaliatory tariffs.
• Impacted businesses report median monthly costs of $65,000.
• Nearly one in five (18%) exporters and 12% of importers affected by the Canada-U.S. trade war say they would stop being financially viable if the trade war lasts three months or more
Businesses are adjusting prices and operations
• Business responses are highly varied due to varying pricing power, with 42% expecting to absorb most of the new tariff costs, and 41% expected to pass through most of them.
• Businesses are adapting by changing suppliers, reducing purchases, delaying hiring and investment plans, and seeking tariff relief.
Businesses owners want relief and a return to negotiations
• Business owners favour immediate financial relief, particularly lower small business tax rates, direct grants, and tariff refunds, while loan-based support receives less support.
• Business owners support Canada's negotiating stance and retaliatory measures, but overwhelmingly want negotiations to resume quickly to restore certainty and reduce economic disruption.
Survey methodology
Title: U.S.-Canada Trade War Survey: Impact on Your Business
Status: Preliminary results
Active Dates: August 28 - August 31, 2026.
Respondent Demographics: Responses from 1,545 CFIB members who are owners of Canadian independent businesses across all sectors and regions.
Margin of Error: +/- 2.49%, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size.
