Toronto, October 16, 2025 – Weak consumer demand continues to haunt over half (52%) of small businesses, finds the Monthly Business Barometer® by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). This indicator has been higher than its historical average for the past 24 consecutive months.
The long-term small business confidence dropped 3.9 points to 46.3 in October. The 12-month optimism in most sectors and provinces also remains below the breakeven point of 50.
“Although borrowing costs are easing for some Canadians, high cost of living and economic uncertainty continue to affect how they use their dollars. Small firms have been feeling the impacts of weak demand for their products and services for two years now,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics. “For a small business, the loss of even one customer can have a huge impact on the bottom line. As we head into the holiday shopping season, small businesses are hoping for stronger consumer demand to make up for another tough year. CFIB is also calling on the federal government to deliver meaningful cost relief in the November 4 federal budget.”
Inflation indicators are steady, with average price plans sitting unchanged at 2.7% for four consecutive months. Wage plans sat at 2.2% in October.
The labour market is slowing down even further, with 19% of small firms looking to lay off staff in the next few months.
“Hiring remains weak, while layoffs stay above average. The softness that we’ve seen in the labour market since mid-2024 continues, and there are no signs of short-term improvement,” said Laure-Anna Bomal, CFIB’s economist.
For media enquiries or interviews, please contact:
Dariya Baiguzhiyeva, CFIB
647-464-2814
public.affairs@cfib.ca
Methodology
October Business Barometer®: October findings are based on 596 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflects responses received from October 1-7. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.0 per cent, 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance. Next Barometer release is on November 20.
About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.
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