CFIB is examining the impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war on small businesses through insights gathered directly from its members via surveys. Based on over 3,315 responses collected in August 2025, the survey highlights the ongoing pressures facing entrepreneurs—from rising costs to shifting trade dynamics—and outlines the actions needed to foster business growth and resilience.
August 2025 key survey findings:
Tariff impacts and business pressures
Canadian retaliatory tariffs, U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, and the end of U.S. de minimis treatment are the most cited issues. Top impacts include higher expenses (63%), reduced profits (53%), lower revenue (48%), supply chain disruptions (42%), and paused investments (36%). Only 7% reported positive effects. Among those absorbing extra costs, 36% could sustain them for more than a year, 21% for less than six months, and 24% are unsure.
Strategic pivots
One-third of SMEs have already moved away from U.S. suppliers or customers, and another third are considering it. Of those seeking alternatives, 67% turn to Canadian partners, 34% to the EU, and 21% to Mexico.
Policy views and trade strategy
In response to recent U.S. tariff hikes, 20% want to raise tariffs, 20% prefer reducing or removing them, 17% keep current levels, and 28% are undecided. Impacted businesses are more likely to call for tariff reduction (24% vs. 13%). On permanent tariffs, opinion is split—42% keep vs. 38% remove—while impacted businesses are evenly divided and non-impacted firms lean toward keeping them.
Business sentiment
Most small businesses (75%) say the trade war has increased stress, 79% cite unpredictable tariffs as a barrier to planning, only 40% are confident in mitigation efforts, and 82% support returning tariff revenue to affected firms.
These findings reveal a business community facing mounting costs, trade uncertainty, and supply chain shifts, calling for targeted support, stable trade conditions, and cost relief.
Dive deeper into the numbers
Explore our interactive dashboard to delve deeper into our survey. You can filter by province, sector, business size, and more. You can also download the accompanying presentation deck for a detailed summary of the survey’s key takeaways.
Survey methodology
Title: The U.S.-Canada trade war and your business
Status: Final results
Active Dates: August 11 - September 2, 2025 .
Respondent Demographics: Responses from 3,315 CFIB members who are owners of Canadian independent businesses across all sectors and regions.
Margin of Error: ±1.7%, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size.
Marvin Cruz
Director of Research
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