The special Survey on the U.S.-Canada Trade War was launched to assess the impact of 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian small businesses, as well as the potential effects of Canada's retaliatory tariffs. The findings, gathered directly from CFIB members, provide authentic, data-driven insights that help inform public policy and strengthen CFIB’s advocacy on behalf of the small business community.
Key survey findings:
Trade war impacts are widespread and significant
• 26% of all businesses report major negative impacts from the new Section 338 U.S. tariffs and 27% expect a major impact from Canadian retaliatory measures.
• 43% of exporters and 47% of importers are directly affected.
• Among all firms, those impacted face median monthly costs of $80,000.
• 19% of affected exporters and 11% of affected importers expect to stop being financially viable
within three months.
• 42% of all businesses will absorb most tariff costs; 39% will pass them through.
• Firms are adjusting suppliers, spending, hiring, and investment plans.
• SMEs want immediate relief and a quick return to negotiations.
Trade war impacts are widespread and significant
Major impacts are no longer limited to businesses directly exposed to tariffs, suggesting that trade-related uncertainty is
spreading through supply chains, costs, and investment decisions across the economy
Businesses are adjusting prices and operations
• Business responses are highly varied due to varying pricing power, with 42% expecting to absorb most of the new tariff costs, and 39% expected to pass through most of them.
• Tariff-related pressures are likely to contribute to a higher financial burden on several firms, higher prices for consumers and inflationary pressure across the economy.
Businesses owners want relief and a return to negotiations
• Business owners favour immediate financial relief, particularly lower small business tax rates, direct grants, and tariff refunds, while loan-based support receives less support.
• Business owners support Canada's negotiating stance and retaliatory measures, but overwhelmingly want negotiations to resume quickly to restore certainty and reduce economic disruption.
Survey methodology
Title: U.S.-Canada Trade War Survey: Impact on small business of Section 338 tariffs and retaliatory tariffs
Status: Final results
Active Dates: August 28 - September 8, 2026.
Respondent Demographics: Responses from 2,294 CFIB members who are owners of Canadian independent businesses across all sectors and regions.
Margin of Error: +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size.
