August 2026 Results
Key takeaways
- Small business long-term optimism remained almost unchanged and well above the 50-point threshold;
- Short-term optimism declined, to just above 50;
- Business health has remained steady for a third consecutive month.
- Price increase plans remain elevated but have been declining for a fourth consecutive month.
Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, remained almost unchanged at 57.6. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, dropped about 5 points to 52.4, signaling a deterioration.
Provincial picture
Provincial trends—calculated as three‑month moving averages—are now above the 50-point mark. Short-term confidence, also shown as three-month moving averages, showed mixed signals. Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Alberta recorded monthly declines; however, all provinces remained above the 50-point threshold except Ontario.
Sectoral overview
Long‑term confidence—calculated as three‑month moving averages—also recorded long-term index levels above the 50-point mark, except for agriculture (39.1). Short-term confidence presented a more mixed picture. Manufacturing, construction, transportation and utilities, and information, arts and recreation all recorded declines in their short-term indexes.
State of business health
The balance of opinion on the current state of business health remained virtually unchanged for a third consecutive month, standing at 19.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase remained stable at 2.7% in August, while the average wage increase rose slightly to 2.5%.
Other indicators
Full-time staffing plans are weak, with a higher share of employers planning to lay off staff (15%) than to hire (13%).
Insufficient demand remains the top constraints to business and production expansion, cited by 48% of SMEs, and has continued its downward trend for a third consecutive month.
Fuel costs ranked third and have continued their downward trend since peaking in April 2026. Product input and raw material costs also remained significant constraints, with 42% of SMEs reporting each as a major constraint. This is approximately 13 percentage points above the historical average for this indicator.
Methodology
These results are based on 278 responses received from August 4 to 12 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 5.9 per cent 19 times in 20.
Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Accordingly, July results were recalculated to include 22 additional responses beyond the 520 originally used.
Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.
Since February 2026, the survey includes two new data points on shipping and receiving costs; and on shortages of equipment and technology.
As of April 2026, our industry codes align fully with NAICS, resulting in slight composition changes in agriculture, natural resources, transportation, and health and education. Questions? Contact us directly.
Some of the visualizations have been prepared by Aarmi Patel, Data Analyst, PBI.
More details
Regional data about business optimism, price plans, limitations and cost constraints:
The Business Barometer, 2025 Retrospective.
