October 2026 Results
Key takeaways
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Small business long-term and short-term optimism remained unchanged;
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Current business health improved slightly;
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Price increase plans declined somewhat but are still at elevated levels.
Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, remained virtually unchanged at 50.0. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also flatlined at 45.3.
Provincial picture
Provincial trends—calculated as three‑month moving averages—are around the 50-point mark in most provinces. Confidence ranges from the 60s in Nova Scotia to 45.7 in New Brunswick. The four largest provinces are clustered around the breakeven point of 50.
Sectoral overview
Sectoral confidence—also calculated as three‑month moving averages— remains weakest in agriculture, construction, manufacturing, transportation, and retail trade; with readings below 50. Transportation, construction, retail and manufacturing also recorded the largest declines in long-term confidence.
State of business health
The balance of opinion on the current state of business health increased to 20 in October, bringing it close to its historical average.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase edged down to 2.8% in October, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The average wage increase decreased slightly to 2.2%. For more details about price and wage plans, click here.
Other indicators
Full-time staffing plans weakened further in October, with a higher share of employers planning to lay off staff (22%) than to hire (11%). This month marks the weakest net staffing intentions since the pandemic.
Insufficient demand remains the top constraint to business and production expansion, cited by 50% of SMEs, followed by the shortage of skilled labour (43%).
Fuel costs ranked as the top cost constraint again and have remained elevated since their peak in April 2026.
Despite the additional pressures from higher fuel costs, about 70% of small businesses expect to pass on to customers only a very small part of these higher costs. On average, businesses expect to pass on only about one-fifth (21%) of the higher costs through price increases.
Methodology
These results are based on 301 responses received from October 1st to 8th from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 5.6 per cent 19 times in 20.
Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Accordingly, September results were recalculated to include 26 additional responses beyond the 581 originally used.
Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index below 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.
Since February 2026, the survey includes two new data points on shipping and receiving costs; and on shortages of equipment and technology.
As of April 2026, our industry codes align fully with NAICS, resulting in slight composition changes in agriculture, natural resources, transportation, and health and education. Questions? Contact us directly.
More details
Regional data about business optimism, price plans, limitations and cost constraints:
The Business Barometer, 2025 Retrospective.
