June 2026 Results
Key takeaways
- Small business long-term optimism remained weak in early June, edging up but staying just below the 50-point threshold;
- Short-term optimism declined slightly, and now rests below the long-term index;
- Despite a slight monthly decrease, price increase plans remain elevated at or above 3% for a third consecutive month.
Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, remained virtually unchanged to 49.6. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, remained below the 50-point mark at 46.1.
Provincial picture
Provincial trends—calculated as three‑month moving averages—display a similar pattern. British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick are below the 50-point mark. Short-term confidence displays a mitigated trend: several provinces sit well below 50 (Saskatchewan, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Ontario), while a few post readings in the high 50s (Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia) with the remainder clustered around the mid-50 range.
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Sectoral overview
Long‑term confidence—calculated as three‑month moving averages—decreased across almost all sectors. Retail, information, arts and recreation, transportation and utilities, agriculture, and accommodation and food services all recorded long term index levels below 50, with most (except transportation and utilities) also posting short-term index levels below 50. Short-term confidence is particularly low across most sectors.
State of business health
The balance of opinion on the current state of business health increased to 18 but remains below the historical average of 21.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase edged down to 3.0% in May, marking a slight decrease (0.1), and the average wage increase displayed a similar monthly change and now stands at 2.3%. For more details about small firms' price and wage increase plans, click here.
Other indicators
Full-time staffing plans remain steady but weak, with a slightly higher share of employers planning to lay off staff (13%) than to hire (12%). This marks the second consecutive month of 2026 with negative net staffing intentions, following several months of a net positive balance.
Insufficient demand remains the top constraints to business and production expansion, reported by 53% of SMEs—about 15 percentage points above its historical average.
Cost‑related pressures continue to weigh heavily on growth prospects, led by fuel costs (66%), tax and regulatory expenses costs (60%), and wage costs (59%). Despite a continued decrease since April 2026, fuel costs remain high amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, impacting two-third of small businesses. Product input and raw material costs, as well as capital and technology costs, also remain significant constraints, with 42% and 38% of SMEs respectively reporting them as major constraints.
Methodology
These results are based on 347 responses received from June 2 to 8 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 5.3 per cent 19 times in 20.
Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Accordingly, May results were recalculated to include 28 additional responses beyond the 563 originally used.
Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.
Since February 2026, the survey includes two new data points on shipping and receiving costs; and on shortages of equipment and technology. Provincial and sectoral details are not available yet.
As of April 2026, our industry codes align fully with NAICS, resulting in slight composition changes in agriculture, natural resources, transportation, and health and education. Questions? Contact us directly.
More details
Regional data about business optimism, price plans, limitations and cost constraints:
The Business Barometer, 2025 Retrospective.
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