Monthly Business Barometer®

August 2025 Results

Key takeaways

• Small business optimism decreased in August, falling again below the breakeven point of 50;
• Insufficient demand continues to affect almost half of businesses;
• Average price increase planned for the next 12 months remains unchanged at 2.7.

Small business optimism in Canada

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, edged down to 47.8—about 3.7 points lower than in July. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, fell by 2.6 points to 46.8. After a four-month climb to the 50 threshold, long-term confidence is trending downward again.

Provincial picture

Following modest gains in recent months, the long-term confidence is now declining in most provinces, with the exception of New Brunswick, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Only New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec and Manitoba remain above the 50-point threshold – the level where equal shares of entrepreneurs expect stronger and weaker performances.

Sectoral overview

Long-term confidence has also deteriorated across most sectors, except wholesale, professional services, construction and agriculture. Retail, manufacturing, personal services, transportation and warehousing, as well as insurance, real estate, and financial services, continue to lag below the 50-point mark.

Inflation indicators

 These indicators remain unchanged from July, with the average price increase holding at 2.7%, and the average wage increase steady at 2.1%. 

Other indicators

Full-time staffing plans remain muted with no real appetite for hiring, with a little more employers looking to add staff than to reduce it. Part-time employment remains negative, a trend that has persisted for most of the time since mid-2023.

Insufficient demand persists as the primary barrier to business and production expansion (as reported by 49% of SMEs). Key cost constraints hindering business growth include insurance costs (63%), tax and regulatory expenses (63%), and wage costs (58%).

Methodology

These results are based on 367 responses received from August 5 to 12 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 5.1 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.  

The next Business Barometer will be released on September 18, 2025.  

Here are the planned release dates for the remainder of 2025: September 18, October 16, November 20, December 18. 

For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, 2024 Retrospective. 

We released a special edition on tourism businesses.

Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics

Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist

Laure-Anna Bomal, Economist