Business Barometer® Small business optimism holds steady; holiday shoppers are in the mood
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Toronto, December 7, 2011 - According to the latest survey data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), small business confidence saw little change in the month of November. The Business Barometer index was 63.7, virtually identical to October's 63.6 reading.
"This level is still lower than normal, however, as overhanging concerns about the potential spread of economic weakness out of Europe appear to be still at play," commented Ted Mallett, vice-president and chief economist for CFIB. "The Index has recovered 2.0 of the 6.6 points lost in August when the Euro currency and US fiscal policy crises hit world financial markets, suggesting the Canadian economy is performing at a slower pace, but has not dipped into recession."
Retailers are almost a point above the national average, and the hospitality sector seems to have broken out of its two-year slump, suggesting a reasonably good holiday shopping season--all considered. The outlook among manufacturing, construction and transport businesses, however, remain on the weaker side. "Although we have been seeing generally positive trends, November inventory levels, overtime hours and accounts receivable measures all stepped back slightly from October levels," said Mallett.
Provincially speaking business owners in Saskatchewan are the most optimistic in Canada with an index level of just above 74. Optimism in Alberta slipped a little, but still remains at a healthy 71.7, while businesses in BC and Manitoba also register above-average index scores. The lowest levels of optimism came from New Brunswick (59.1), Ontario (58.9) and Nova Scotia (54.9)-all with index levels below 60-suggesting only marginal economic growth in those regions.
Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index level above 50 means owners expecting their businesses' performance to be stronger in the next year outnumber those expecting weaker performance. According to past results, index levels normally range between 65 and 75 when the economy is growing. The November 2011 findings are based on 1,126 responses, collected from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 2.9 per cent 19 times in 20.
For more information or to arrange an interview with Ted Mallett, contact Gisele Lumsden or Meghan Carrington at 416 222-8022 or email public.affairs@cfib.ca
As Canada's largest association of small- and medium-sized businesses, CFIB is Powered by EntrepreneursTM. Established in 1971, CFIB takes direction from more than 108,000 members in every sector nationwide, giving independent business a strong and influential voice at all levels of government and helping to grow the economy.
