October 2025 Results
Key takeaways
- Small business optimism declined in October, falling again below the breakeven point of 50;
- Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada are negatively impacting 72% of small business owners;
- Average price increase planned for the next 12 months remains unchanged at 2.7 for the fourth consecutive month.
Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, edged down to 46.3—about 3.9 points lower than in September. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, remained virtually unchanged at 44.8.
Provincial picture
The long-term confidence is decreasing in most provinces, with the exception of Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Only New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Manitoba remain above the 50-point threshold – the level where equal shares of entrepreneurs expect stronger and weaker performances.
Sectoral overview
Long-term confidence has also deteriorated across most sectors, except for health and education, agriculture, professional services, personal services and insurance, real estate, and financial services. Health and education, agriculture and professional services are the only sectors above the 50-point mark.
Impact of tariffs
The current U.S.-Canada trade situation has negatively affected 72% of firms, with 19% reporting a significant impact. The effect is particularly pronounced in the transportation (38%), manufacturing (27%), and wholesale (26%) industries.
State of business health
The current state of business health is subpar. In fact, since April 2023, this indicator has been at or above its historical average only eight times.
Inflation indicators
These indicators remain unchanged from September, with the average price increase holding at 2.7%, and the average wage increase steady at 2.2%.
Other indicators
Full-time staffing plans show a continuing deterioration of the labour market, with more employers looking to reduce staff (19%) than to hire (12%).
Insufficient demand persists as the primary barrier to business and production expansion (as reported by 52% of SMEs). The lack of demand has been higher than its historical average for 24 months continuously. Key cost constraints hindering business growth include insurance costs (68%), tax and regulatory expenses (67%), and wage costs (64%).
Methodology
These results are based on 596 responses received from October 1 to 7 from a stratified random sample of CFIB members to a controlled-access web survey. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.0 per cent 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index below 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.
The next Business Barometer will be released on November 20, 2025.
The planned release date for the last Barometer of 2025 is December 18.
For regional information about business optimism, price plans, limitations and main cost constraints for SMEs, please visit: the Business Barometer, 2024 Retrospective.
Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics
Simon Gaudreault, Vice-President, Research and Chief Economist
Laure-Anna Bomal, Economist
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